Japan's ageing population
Almost a third of Japanese people are over 65, straining pensions and the workforce as births fall to record lows.
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- Japan
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Evidence
11 figures, each threaded to its source
Share of population aged 65 or over
29.3percent
3 sources
“Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Sunday that the elderly make up an estimated 29.3 percent of the population, a higher proportion than in any other country or region with more than 100,000 people.”
Number of people aged 65 or over
36.25million people
3 sources
“Japan's elderly population has hit a record high of 36.25 million people, with those aged 65 or older now accounting for almost one-third of Japanese, according to government data.”
Births in Japan in 2024
686,061births
3 sources
“There were 686,061 births, down 41,227 year on year, marking a record low for the ninth year running.”
Total fertility rate, 2024
1.15children per woman
3 sources
“The total fertility rate, indicating the number of children a woman has in her lifetime, fell by 0.05 points to a new low of 1.15.”
Natural population decrease in 2024
919,237people
2 sources
“Since the natural decrease in population, which is the difference between the number of births and deaths, surpassed 600,000 for the first time in 2021, it has risen sharply to a record high 919,237 in 2024.”
Life expectancy at birth for women
87.14years
“According to the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, the average life expectancy in Japan in 2023 was 87.14 years for women and 81.09 years for men.”
Life expectancy at birth for men
81.09years
“According to the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare, the average life expectancy in Japan in 2023 was 87.14 years for women and 81.09 years for men.”
Elderly people still in employment
9.14million workers
2 sources
“A record 9.14 million elderly people were employed last year, accounting for one in seven employees.”
Age at which a person is counted as elderly
65years
“Japan's elderly population has hit a record high of 36.25 million people, with those aged 65 or older now accounting for almost one-third of Japanese, according to government data.”
Minimum population of the countries and regions compared
100,000people
“A higher proportion than in any other country or region with more than 100,000 people.”
Replacement level fertility rate
2.1children per woman
“It's generally defined as a rate of 2.1 children per woman.”
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Background
Japan has the oldest population of any large country. People aged 65 or over make up an estimated 29.3 percent of the population, around 36.25 million people, a higher share than anywhere else with more than 100,000 residents. Two long term trends built this age structure. Japanese people live remarkably long lives, with life expectancy at birth of 87.14 years for women and 81.09 years for men, thanks to good diets, universal healthcare and low levels of violence and poverty. At the same time, far fewer babies are being born. In 2024 there were just 686,061 births, the lowest ever recorded, and the fertility rate fell to 1.15 children per woman, far below the 2.1 needed to keep a population steady. Many young adults delay or avoid marriage because of long working hours, expensive housing and the high cost of raising children. Deaths now far outnumber births, so the population is shrinking by hundreds of thousands each year. The effects reach everywhere, from struggling rural villages and closing schools to labour shortages, rising pension bills and a booming market for care robots.
Causes
Very long life expectancy
Life expectancy at birth in Japan is 87.14 years for women and 81.09 years for men, among the highest in the world. A traditional diet low in fat, universal health insurance, low obesity and strong community life all help people live into old age. Because each generation survives longer, the number of elderly people keeps climbing even without any change in births.
Very low birth rate
The fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.15 in 2024, far below the replacement level of 2.1. Long working hours, insecure jobs, expensive housing and childcare, and changing attitudes to marriage mean many young Japanese delay children or have none. Fewer births today also means fewer potential parents in twenty years, locking in the decline.
Little immigration to offset decline
Most ageing countries partly refill their workforces with migrants, but Japan has historically kept immigration low, and foreign residents remain a small share of the population. Without large scale immigration, nothing offsets the gap between deaths and births, which reached a record natural decrease of 919,237 people in 2024.
Effects
Primary
- People aged 65 or over now make up 29.3 percent of the population, about 36.25 million people.
- Deaths exceed births by a widening margin, and the population shrank naturally by a record 919,237 in 2024.
- The working age population falls every year as retirees outnumber school leavers entering jobs.
Secondary
- Labour shortages affect farming, construction, transport and especially care work.
- Schools close and merge as the number of children falls, particularly in the countryside.
- Demand for care homes, nurses and medical services keeps rising faster than supply.
Social
- Many rural villages are left with mostly elderly residents, empty houses and shuttered shops.
- More elderly people live alone, raising problems of isolation and unnoticed deaths.
- A shrinking group of working age adults must care for and fund a growing group of dependants.
Economic
- Pension and healthcare spending takes a growing share of the government budget, pushing up public debt.
- A record 9.14 million elderly people are still in work, around one in seven employees.
- Businesses struggle to fill vacancies, which limits how fast the economy can grow.
Environmental
- Abandoned farmland and empty rural homes are slowly reclaimed by forest and weeds.
- Some depopulated areas see wildlife such as boar and bears move back into villages.
- Shrinking cities face the cost of maintaining roads, pipes and services built for larger populations.
Responses
Immediate
- Government subsidies cover part of the cost of childbirth, childcare and children's healthcare to encourage larger families.
- Local authorities run matchmaking schemes and pay grants to young families who move to shrinking towns.
- Care homes and hospitals recruit foreign care workers through special visa schemes to plug staffing gaps.
Long term
- Companies and care homes invest in robotics and automation, from lifting robots in care homes to self service systems that replace scarce workers.
- The retirement age is rising and firms are encouraged to keep employees on beyond 65, which is why 9.14 million elderly people still work.
- Immigration rules have been cautiously loosened, with new visa categories admitting more foreign workers in shortage industries.
- Successive governments have expanded free preschool and parental leave to try to lift the birth rate over decades.
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